I-SEM Daily Briefing — 30 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €28.6/MWh · Median €154.91/MWh · Periods above €150: 28 of 48 (58%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 19.4% · Range: 9.3%–32.6%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 28 (58% of day) · Above €200: 7 (15% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €157.22/MWh · Off-peak avg: €162.12/MWh · Spread: €-4.9/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

Wind spent the day climbing out of an overnight trough — 9.3% at 08:00, past 20% by 11:00, peaking at 32.6% mid-afternoon — and price followed it down almost tick for tick. The €121–122 plateau from 12:00 to 14:30 is as flat a trough as the week has produced, a full €37 under the day’s average. Wind then unwound just as fast into the evening, falling from 32% at 18:00 to 20.9% by 20:30, and price rebuilt itself into a proper spike: €189 by 18:00, €214.01 by 20:00, the day’s peak.

For once the peak/off-peak split reads negative — off-peak averaged €162.12, five euro above the daytime window — but that’s timing, not a genuine reversal. The overnight hours were still carrying yesterday evening’s high-price hangover while the 07:00–22:00 window swallowed the midday wind trough whole. Std dev held at €28.6, in line with the rest of the week, but the range was the widest yet at €93.8 — real shape, not just noise.

That shape is exactly what storage wants. Charging at €122 and discharging at €211 seven and a half hours later put €116 gross on the board at a 47.7% ROI, the best return since the 52%-wind day on the 26th. Two flat, low-wind days either side of this one made barely a third of that — give the market a proper trough to work with and the battery does its job.