I-SEM Daily Briefing — 24 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €81.75/MWh · Median €179.37/MWh · Periods above €150: 41 of 48 (85%)

The std dev of €81.75 is nearly double Tuesday’s and the biggest in the blog’s history so far. The median (€179.37) sitting well below the mean (€213.03) tells you the distribution is skewed hard right — the extreme evening spike dragging the average up. The floor (€145.00 at 04:00–05:00) is gas-set; not cheap by any measure, but the only relief all day. Then the evening went critical: €347 at 18:00, €400 at 19:00, €414.20 at 20:00. Prices that belong in a stressed winter grid appearing in June.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 3.3% · Range: 0.5%–14.2%

Wind averaged 3.3% — the lowest of the week. For ten hours straight (06:30–16:30) wind sat below 2%, bottoming at 0.5% at 10:30 — essentially absent. Price and wind were in lock-step all day: near-zero wind, near-crisis prices. The only relief came at the very end — wind picked up to 8.3% at 22:00 and 11.0% at 22:30, and prices fell €154 in two half-hours. Wind showed up two hours too late.

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 41 (85% of day) · Above €200: 19 (40% of day)

19 periods above €200 (40%) — the most scarcity of any day this week. And the top end is extreme: six consecutive periods above €347 from 18:00–21:30, peaking at €414. The floor at €145 and the median at €179 don’t hint at the violence in the top quartile. A scarcity event distorts the PDC into an L-shape — a long flat expensive body with a near-vertical spike at the top.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €239.04/MWh · Off-peak avg: €169.69/MWh · Spread: €69.35/MWh

€69.35 — the widest positive spread of the week. Off-peak (€169.69) includes the overnight decline to €145 and the late-night wind recovery pulling 22:00-22:30 back to €243-260. Peak (€239.04) is the morning ramp and extraordinary evening scarcity averaged out. For a battery that could wait — charge at 04:00, discharge at 19:00-20:00 — this was the best structural spread the week offered.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charge at €145 at 03:30 — overnight, wind at 1.4%, demand light enough to keep prices at the floor. Discharge at €399 at 19:00 — the scarcity spike in full swing. €388 gross, ROI 133.6%. The best BESS day in the blog’s history. To put it plainly: charge cost €291, revenue €679 — more than doubled on one cycle. A €254 charge-to-discharge spread on a 1MW/2MWh battery is exceptional. This is the day that makes the investment case for storage.

Commentary #

The week’s extreme. Mean €213.03, peak €414.20, std dev €81.75 — all records. Wind at 3.3% mean and 0.5% at its nadir gave the market nothing to work with. For sixteen hours (06:30–22:00) wind sat below 5%, and during the evening demand peak it was essentially absent. Gas ran out of margin.

The profile has a recognisable shape buried under the scarcity: overnight floor (€145 at 04:00–05:00), morning ramp (€145 → €217 by 08:00), a mid-morning soft patch (€159-185 from 09:30-15:00 as demand dipped), then the collapse from 17:00. €231 at 17:00, €347 at 18:00, €414 at 20:00. The scarcity resolved fast — wind finally arrived at 22:00 (8-11%) and prices fell €154 in two half-hours.

Storage had a record day. €388 gross on a 1MW/2MWh cycle, charge at €145, discharge at €399. Consumers faced a brutal evening; batteries faced a record payday. Two directions for the same absence of wind.