I-SEM Daily Briefing — 23 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €48.64/MWh · Median €166.51/MWh · Periods above €150: 37 of 48 (77%)

The highest mean and widest range of the week. €187.42 mean, €170.11 range, std dev €48.64 — nothing close to this has appeared in the previous four days. The profile opens very high (€223.64 at 23:00 — Monday’s scarcity carrying through), eases overnight, dips to a €125 floor at 10:30 during the midday wind window, then explodes: €235 at 18:00, €248 at 18:30, €288 at 19:00, €295.11 at 20:30. The highest price in the blog’s history so far. Wind hit 1.4%–4.4% during those scarcity hours.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 5.0% · Range: 1.4%–10.9%

Wind told Tuesday’s story in three acts. Overnight near-zero (1.4-5%), keeping prices in the €152-224 range through the night — no cheap trough. Then a midday recovery to 10.9% by 14:30, pulling prices into €125-145 for about four hours. Then the collapse — wind fell from 10.9% at 14:30 back to 4.4% at 20:30, right into peak evening demand — and the market went into scarcity. Each act wrote itself directly into the price curve.

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 37 (77% of day) · Above €200: 15 (31% of day)

15 periods above €200, matching Monday’s count — but these sit higher, reaching €288-295 versus Monday’s €230-240. The top of the curve is steep, not gradual. Below that is a wide mid-range tier (€155-195), then the midday trough below €145. The std dev of €48.64 is the signature: this is a day of extremes, not a smooth gas ramp.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €193.55/MWh · Off-peak avg: €177.21/MWh · Spread: €16.34/MWh

The €16.34 spread flatters to deceive. The overnight was already expensive (€155-224), dragging the off-peak average to €177.21. The peak window contains both the cheap midday trough and the extreme evening scarcity — they cancel out in the average. The intraday range of €170.11 is the number that matters here. The spread metric can’t capture a day with three distinct regimes.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Best BESS day of the week by a wide margin. Charge at €143 at 13:30 — right in the midday wind window with wind at 9.5% and prices in the €141-145 range. Discharge at €292 at 19:00 as the scarcity spike was underway. €211 gross, ROI 73.9%. The midday wind pulse created the charge window; the evening scarcity created the premium. A €149 spread (€143 charge → €292 discharge) is exceptional. This is the kind of day that makes the investment case for storage.

Commentary #

The week’s sharpest day. Mean of €187.42 — up €8 on Monday, and with a std dev of €48.64 that dwarfs anything else in the run. The €295.11 peak at 20:30 is the highest price in the blog’s history so far.

The price shape follows wind in three chapters. Act one: overnight near-zero (1.4-5%), keeping prices in the €152-224 range all night — there was no cheap trough to start from. Act two: a midday reprieve as wind climbed to 10.9% by 14:30, pulling prices into the €125-145 range for about four hours. Act three: wind fell from 10.9% at 14:30 back to 4.4% at 20:30, right into peak Tuesday evening demand — and the market went into scarcity. €235 at 18:00, €288 at 19:00, €295 at 20:30. Gas couldn’t cover it at any price that mattered.

Storage had its best day of the week. Charge at €143 into the midday wind softness, discharge at €292 into the scarcity spike — €211 gross, ROI 73.9%. The wind needs to return; consumers are paying hard for its absence.