I-SEM Daily Briefing — 22 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €35.86/MWh · Median €174.92/MWh · Periods above €150: 34 of 48 (71%)

Monday arrived and the market repriced hard. Demand jumped back to 3,802 MW and wind stayed negligible at 5.3% with barely any range (1.8%–14.2%). Mean €179.00 — up €44 on Sunday. The morning ramp was steep: €137.80 at 05:00 to €200.59 at 06:30 in 90 minutes as commercial demand switched on. Then the evening scarcity — prices above €200 from 18:00 through end of day, peaking at €240.70 at 22:00. The only floor came from a brief overnight wind pulse around 01:00-02:00; without that, there was nowhere cheap all day.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 5.3% · Range: 1.8%–14.2%

A brief overnight recovery (11-14% from 23:30-02:00) gave the only softness — the €131-145 window. From 04:00 onward wind fell steadily: 9.7% at 04:00, 5.7% at 07:00, bottoming at 1.8% by 20:00. Price and wind moved in lock-step. When wind hit 2% in the evening, prices hit €232-240. The inverse correlation doesn’t get much cleaner.

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 34 (71% of day) · Above €200: 15 (31% of day)

15 periods above €200 (31%), 34 above €150 (71%). The curve is steep at the top — a genuine scarcity cluster from the evening. The floor is still €131.50 thanks to the overnight wind pulse; without that, it would have been a fully gas-set 48-period day. From 06:00 onward, the merit order is essentially all-gas, all-day.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €191.93/MWh · Off-peak avg: €157.44/MWh · Spread: €34.49/MWh

Spread back in positive territory at €34.49 — normal weekday structure restored. The off-peak (€157.44) was elevated by the late Sunday scarcity tail plus Monday evening. The peak (€191.93) is the morning ramp and prolonged evening scarcity averaged out. An arbitrage window existed via the overnight softness, but you needed patience — charge at 00:30 and wait all the way to 21:00 to discharge.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charge at €135 at 00:30 — overnight wind window, 11.2% wind at that moment. Discharge at €237 at 21:00 — middle of the evening scarcity. €133 gross, ROI 49.6%. The overnight wind pulse was short-lived but just long enough to create the charge window. The evening scarcity paid handsomely. Better than the compressed-spread May days: this spread came from a genuine scarcity spike, not a modest ramp.

Commentary #

Monday’s return to work snapped the market back to full attention. Mean €179.00, up €44 on Sunday, and 15 periods clearing above €200 — the scarcity is real. Wind at 5.3% throughout contributed almost nothing, forcing gas to cover nearly all of the 3,802 MW mean demand.

The day has two distinct acts. The morning ramp (€137 → €200 in 90 minutes from 05:00 to 06:30) is demand waking up with no wind available. Prices held elevated through the midday (€145-198 range) before the evening scarcity took hold: from 16:00 onward, prices ran €186-240 as wind hit its lowest readings all week (1.8-3.5%) right into peak evening demand.

The only relief came from the overnight wind pulse around 01:00-02:00 (13-14%), which pulled the floor to €131.50 and gave storage its charge window. Without that pulse, the BESS would have had nowhere cheap to charge. Even with it, the spread was €135 to €237 — a good day for batteries, but a punishing day for everyone else.