I-SEM Daily Briefing — 26 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €33.68/MWh · Median €129.93/MWh · Periods above €150: 19 of 48 (40%)

Same shape as Wednesday/Thursday, just €5 cheaper. Thursday’s scarcity tail dragged the open up to €203, wind chopped the afternoon down to a €103 floor, then evening demand muscled through anyway for a €209 peak.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 26.4% · Range: 14.2%–51.0%

Wind wasn’t really the story today — demand was. It sat in the high-30s/low-40s through the evening ramp, normally enough to cap price, but Friday demand pushed through it regardless. €209 with 38% wind on the system is a demand story, not a supply one.

Week in Context #

Third day easing off Wednesday’s scarcity spike — the week’s average is trending down.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 19 (40% of day) · Above €200: 5 (10% of day)

Shorter, less severe spike than Thursday’s — the ceiling is coming down.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €147.71/MWh · Off-peak avg: €137.78/MWh · Spread: €9.93/MWh

Modest, ordinary positive spread. Nothing unusual about Friday’s shape.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€141 gross, decent but not spectacular. Charge at the €103 midday floor, discharge into the evening ramp — a repeatable, ordinary storage day.

Commentary #

Second day in a row where wind knocked the roof off prices without wrecking the floor. Thursday’s mean was €149, today €144 — both riding the same wind arc, both giving storage a thin but workable spread.

Wind averaged only the mid-20s today, nothing unusual. The bigger story is what’s coming: the weekend forecast has wind going much higher, and this looks like the last “normal” day before the glut arrives.