I-SEM Daily Briefing — 29 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €26.85/MWh · Median €119.71/MWh · Periods above €150: 9 of 48 (19%)

Weekday demand came back and dragged the market with it. Mean jumped to €130.61 — up €53 on Sunday — even with wind (35.6%) still comfortably above its weekly average.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 35.6% · Range: 25.8%–49.4%

Wind eased back from the weekend’s 50%+ readings into the 30s, and demand reasserted itself. The floor lifted to €105, and wind falling to 28% right as demand peaked pushed the evening ceiling up to €189.

Week in Context #

First bounce back after the weekend collapse — still nowhere near Wednesday/Thursday’s scarcity levels, but demand is clearly returning.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 9 (19% of day) · Above €200: 0 (0% of day)

A moderate day — nowhere near Saturday/Sunday’s flat floor, nowhere near a scarcity spike either.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €137.8/MWh · Off-peak avg: €118.63/MWh · Spread: €19.17/MWh

Spread back to positive. Normal weekday shape restored after two days of inverted, demand-collapsed spreads.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€105 gross, ROI 49% — back to an ordinary storage day. Charge at the €105 midday dip, discharge into the €188 evening peak, no weekend extremes to exploit.

Commentary #

Monday snapped the market back to normal. The weekend’s giveaway prices are gone — demand returning to weekday levels (3794MW mean, up from Sunday’s 3302MW) was enough on its own to add €53 to the average, even with wind still running above a third of demand.

The shape is textbook again: cheap-ish overnight and midday, a real evening peak as wind eased off into the demand ramp. After two days of an inverted, wind-flooded market, this is what “normal” looks like this month.