I-SEM Daily Briefing — 1 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €37.79/MWh · Median €131.07/MWh · Periods above €150: 9 of 48 (19%)

Wind at 63% overnight held price near €145, then crashed to 7% by 07:30 — the sharpest overnight wind collapse of the week, and it landed right on the morning ramp. €235 at 07:30, day’s peak. Then wind flooded straight back in through the afternoon, past 60% by evening, and dragged price down to an €86 floor by 22:30. Up, down, and back up again in the same 24 hours.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 36.1% · Range: 6.8%–63.5%

Two inversions in one day, not one. Wind falling 63%→7% overnight builds the €235 spike; wind rising 7%→64% through the afternoon tears the floor out from under price by evening. Same driver, opposite direction, twice.

Week in Context #

A much messier wind profile to open July than Tuesday’s clean single-direction arc. Tuesday’s wind fell steadily all day into the evening peak; Wednesday’s wind whipsawed — crashed, spiked price, then flooded straight back and crushed it. Same ingredients, no consistent shape.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 9 (19% of day) · Above €200: 5 (10% of day)

Most of the day sat flat and cheap — the €150+ periods are almost entirely the morning spike, not a broad ceiling.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €128.6/MWh · Off-peak avg: €135.29/MWh · Spread: €-6.69/MWh

Flipped spread. The overnight low-wind stretch (00:00–07:00) held the off-peak average up, while the afternoon wind glut inside the “peak” window dragged that average down below it. Wind timing beat the clock.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charged cheap into the evening wind (€91 at 21:00, wind above 60%), discharged straight into the morning’s wind-collapse spike (€216 at 07:00). ROI 103% — a clean overnight-to-morning trade that only exists because the wind crash was so abrupt.

Commentary #

Wednesday opens July with the messiest wind profile of the week: a hard overnight collapse that spiked price to €235, followed by an equally hard afternoon flood that crushed it back to €86. Neither move was gradual — both happened inside a handful of periods, which is what makes the day tricky to read off a single chart. You need the whole 24 hours to see the story.

It’s also the reason the peak/off-peak spread flipped negative. The usual daytime premium got wiped out by the afternoon wind glut sitting right inside the “peak” window, while the pre-dawn lull pushed the off-peak average up instead. When wind moves fast enough, it can invert the clock entirely.

A volatile open to the month. Worth watching whether this whipsaw pattern repeats or whether the week settles back into steadier single-direction wind days.