I-SEM Daily Briefing — 1 August 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €37.65/MWh · Median €157.82/MWh · Periods above €150: 29 of 48 (60%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 9.7% · Range: 2.1%–17.8%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 29 (60% of day) · Above €200: 9 (19% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €152.75/MWh · Off-peak avg: €176.68/MWh · Spread: €-23.93/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

The lowest-wind day of the week, 9.7% on average and never above 17.8%, but it didn’t play out as a flat, high day like the 29th — Saturday demand was too soft for that. Wind eased price down from €211 at 23:00 to the €156–158 range by 05:00–07:00, then held there as wind fell back toward 8–10%. With weekend demand light enough to absorb it, price didn’t spike — it flatlined instead, pinned at exactly €122.30 for six straight periods from 11:00 to 14:00. Only once wind collapsed further into the evening, down to 2.2% by 22:30, and demand picked back up did the market break: €146 by 17:00, €215 by 20:00, a session-high €247.60 at 22:00.

That’s the widest range of the week so far, €126.89, and the highest std dev, €37.65 — a day that looked calm at midday and violent by night. Peak/off-peak spread pushed further negative again, €-23.93, continuing the pattern from Friday: whenever the trough falls inside the 07:00–22:00 window and the real spike lands either side of it, the “peak” average ends up looking cheaper than off-peak.

Storage had its best day since the 26th’s outlier: charging at €121 into the midday flat spot and discharging at €237 for the evening spike cleared €159 gross at 65.5% ROI. Low wind alone didn’t do it — it was low wind plus a demand-driven evening ramp with nothing to blunt it. Worth watching whether wind returns before the next weekend rolls around.