I-SEM Daily Briefing — 2 August 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €20.99/MWh · Median €161.74/MWh · Periods above €150: 35 of 48 (73%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 13.9% · Range: 1.6%–29.6%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 35 (73% of day) · Above €200: 5 (10% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €163.4/MWh · Off-peak avg: €173.82/MWh · Spread: €-10.42/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

The day opened already elevated — €220.53 at 23:00, €206.62 by 23:30, the tail end of Saturday evening demand — before wind reasserted itself just after midnight, collapsing from 29.6% to 1.7% in a single half-hour and dragging price down through the €200s and €190s as it went. From there the pattern turned clean: wind climbed steadily through the morning, reaching 19.4% by 14:00, and price sank in step, bottoming at €140.77 at 11:30 in a shallow trough that ran from 09:30 clean through to 15:30.

The evening rebuild is the odd part. Price climbed to a local high of €200.50 at 19:00 even with wind sitting at a moderate 14% — demand doing the lifting, not wind — only for wind to keep rising into the close, 21.3% at 21:00 and 27.5% by 22:30, and pull price back down to €171.52. Std dev was the lowest of the week at €20.99, and the negative peak/off-peak spread (€-10.42) is the same story as the last few days: the real extremes sit either side of the 07:00–22:00 window, not inside it.

Storage had a quieter day for it — €58 gross, 20.2% ROI, the softest return since Thursday. Charging at €143 and discharging at €202 only found a €59 spread, thin by the week’s standards, because this trough was shallow rather than sharp. Calmer prices, calmer battery.