I-SEM Daily Briefing — 4 August 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €18.86/MWh · Median €156.43/MWh · Periods above €150: 31 of 48 (65%)

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 31 (65% of day) · Above €200: 1 (2% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €161.72/MWh · Off-peak avg: €156.73/MWh · Spread: €4.99/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Updated 2026-08-25: the BESS simulation previously allowed the discharge window to occur before the charge window ended, which is physically impossible for a battery. This day’s figure was recalculated enforcing charge-before-discharge; gross profit corrected from €67 to €49.

Commentary #

Tuesday’s shape flipped the usual script: the day’s high, €201.03, landed at 09:00, not in the evening. Price built steadily from a €146 overnight floor into a sharp commuter-hour ramp, then cracked €200 before 09:30 and spent the rest of the day unwinding — down to a €129.44 trough at 14:30, then a second, smaller climb into a 183-ish evening plateau (18:30–20:30) that never troubled the morning’s peak.

That double-hump, morning-led profile is why std dev came in at €18.86 — the flattest day of the week so far. Both humps sit inside the 07:00–22:00 window, so the peak/off-peak spread barely registers at €4.99: nearly all the volatility is happening within the daytime block rather than between day and night, leaving nothing for a simple peak/off-peak split to capture.

Storage had a thin day of it — €49 gross, charging at €131 (14:00) and discharging into the €183 evening plateau — because the trough isn’t cheap enough to build a real spread against a morning peak that peaked early and eased off well before the battery could reach it. A muted start to the week; worth watching whether Wednesday’s wind forecast breaks the pattern.

For the week-level picture and what it means if you're buying, see Weekly Analysis — 10–16 August 2026.