I-SEM Daily Briefing — 5 August 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €62.41/MWh · Median €140.83/MWh · Periods above €150: 14 of 48 (29%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 42.3% · Range: 22.9%–61.1%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 14 (29% of day) · Above €200: 0 (0% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €83.98/MWh · Off-peak avg: €150.84/MWh · Spread: €-66.86/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

Wednesday is the week’s outlier, and it isn’t close. Wind averaged 42.3% of demand and peaked at 61.1%, and the merit order showed it: price fell off a cliff from a €150 mid-morning level down to single digits by 10:00, bottoming at €8.12 at 13:30 and holding under €15 for nearly two hours either side of it. That’s cannibalisation working exactly as advertised — once wind is deep enough into the stack, every extra MWh of it pushes gas out and the clearing price collapses toward zero.

The knock-on effect flips the daily rhythm on its head. Peak avg (07:00–22:00) came in at €83.98 against an off-peak avg of €150.84 — a spread of -€66.86, the week’s only negative-shape day of this scale, because the cheap hours are the sunny, windy afternoon rather than the small hours. Std dev of €62.41 is more than double any other day this week.

For storage this was a gift: charge at €9 for 2 MWh (–€18) and discharge into the €181 evening peak for +€307, netting €289 gross — over three times any other day’s return this week, for a 1,600%+ ROI. This is the clean illustration of the rule: storage revenue comes from volatility, not price level, and today’s near-zero trough manufactured more of it than a whole week of gas-set days combined.

For the week-level picture and what it means if you're buying, see Weekly Analysis — 10–16 August 2026.