I-SEM Daily Briefing — 6 May 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €30.91/MWh · Median €172.77/MWh · Periods above €150: 45 of 48 (94%)

Price vs Wind #

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 45 (94% of day) · Above €200: 16 (33% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €199.42/MWh · Off-peak avg: €162.27/MWh · Spread: €37.15/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€108 gross, and better than the spread alone implies. Charged at €147 (03:30), discharged at €236 (20:30): €89 of captured spread. The dual-peak shape — €231 morning, €250 evening — gave two viable discharge windows. The evening was taken. Unlike Monday and Tuesday, both would have worked.

Commentary #

The wind drought peaked on Wednesday. Mean wind fell to 3.8% — a number so low it barely registers — and held there through the entire working day. Six hours of sub-1% wind during peak demand hours, gas marginal in every period.

Mean price hit €185.49/MWh, the week’s highest. Two peaks cleared above €230 — a morning ramp (€231 at 07:30) and an evening peak (€250 at 21:00). The first day of the run to produce a proper dual-peak shape, with both windows genuinely expensive.

The comparison that tells the week’s story so far is Monday to Wednesday. Bank holiday Monday, 13% wind, suppressed demand: €152 mean. Working Wednesday, 3.8% wind, full commercial load: €185 mean. €33 of difference, almost entirely attributable to losing nine wind percentage points. That’s as close to a marginal cost of wind as a single-day comparison will give you.