I-SEM Daily Briefing — 7 May 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €37.85/MWh · Median €173.5/MWh · Periods above €150: 33 of 48 (69%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 11.0% · Range: 2.6%–22.6%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 33 (69% of day) · Above €200: 15 (31% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €169.3/MWh · Off-peak avg: €182.9/MWh · Spread: €-13.6/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€139 gross — the week’s best, and wind built it. Charged at €123 (11:30) and discharged at €226 (07:00), capturing €104 of spread. The charge price was the cheapest of the week; the midday trough that built it was 22.6% wind at €119. A real operator realises 70–85% of the model spread — but even at the low end, this is the week’s best day by a distance.

Commentary #

Wind cannibalisation, compressed into six hours. Wind climbed from 8.6% at 09:00 to 22.6% by 15:00 — a 14-point surge — and price fell in lockstep: €204 → €180 → €152 → €137 → €123 → €119. Seven consecutive half-hours below €130, with the daily minimum (€119) at 11:30. The inverse correlation is tight enough to put a number on: roughly €6 of price suppression per 1% rise in wind penetration through that window.

The consequence for wind farms is the cannibalisation problem in its most legible form. Wind generated heavily in the cheap midday window (16–23% of demand during €119–150 periods) and barely at all through the expensive overnight and morning-peak periods (2–5% during €189–242). Capture price today probably sat around €130–145 against a €174 time-weighted mean — meaningful volume, realised well below the day’s average price.

The peak/off-peak spread went negative: peak hours averaged €169.30, off-peak averaged €182.90. Off-peak more expensive than peak. The midday trough sat inside peak hours; overnight retained Wednesday’s wind-drought tail. Any commercial product banded on conventional peak/off-peak windows misfires on a day like this. Storage, on the other hand, made its best money of the week. €139 gross from a €104 spread — the shape that cannibalises wind revenue is exactly the shape batteries are built for.