I-SEM Daily Briefing — 9 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €35.66/MWh · Median €122.86/MWh · Periods above €150: 8 of 48 (17%)

Yesterday’s quiet replaced by another late-evening scarcity event. Mean €128.11, peak €230.40 at 22:00, range €146.81 (second-widest of the run after June 7). Four periods above €200, all in the late evening.

The shape: a smooth day-internal descent from the boundary spillover (€138 at 23:00) through overnight (€112–123 from 03:00 to 06:30, wind 56-63%) into a gentle morning shoulder topping at €139 at 07:30. Then a long descending midday belly: €124 at 09:00 → €104 at 10:00 → €83.59 at 14:30. Sustained €84–98 from 14:00 to 16:30 (wind 50-53%).

Then the climb: €98 at 16:00 → €176 at 20:00 → €230 at 22:00. Wind drained from 52% to 19% across that 6-hour window. The late-evening peak block (21:00–22:30) averaged €216.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 47.8% · Range: 18.6%–63.4%

Same shape as June 7 but slightly less extreme. Wind held 50%+ from 23:30 the night before to 17:30 today — 18 hours of sustained high wind. Then drained: 44% at 17:30 → 28% at 19:30 → 22% at 20:30 → 19% at 21:00 onwards. 33-point wind decline across 4 hours.

The late-evening scarcity isn’t about absolute wind level (19% has produced €255 elsewhere); it’s about the rate of decline combined with how demand stays elevated late into a Tuesday evening. A V-into-late-evening day with steeper-than-average wind drainage and gentler-than-average demand decline. The merit order had time to walk into peakers and not enough downward demand pressure to pull it back.

Week in Context #

Two V-into-late-evening days in three: June 7 and June 9. Combined BESS revenue €503 — 12% of the entire run’s cumulative on two days. The wind-shape lesson at its sharpest.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 8 (17% of day) · Above €200: 4 (8% of day)

8 above €150, 4 above €200. The PDC has a clear scarcity top (4 periods €209–230) plus a moderate upper shelf (4 more periods €151–181) plus a long mid-section, plus a meaningful cheap tail (10 periods below €110).

The shape resembles May 24’s “double-shoulder” archetype — both ends working — except today’s scarcity top is sharper and concentrated in 4 consecutive late-evening periods.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €124.5/MWh · Off-peak avg: €134.13/MWh · Spread: €-9.63/MWh

−€9.63. Seventh negative reading.

Off-peak window catches scarcity spillover from June 8 and from late tonight (the €230 peak sits in the peak window, but the late-evening tail above €200 spills into period 47 which is inside the peak window — and the off-peak window catches the high overnight floor). Either way, the metric inverts.

The captured spread (€132) is 14× the absolute value of the headline. The peak/off-peak metric has now misrepresented the day on 7 of 38 days — 18%. Not a one-off failure; structural.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€199 gross — the second-best day of the run after June 7’s €304.

Charge €84 in the wind-deep midday trough (14:00–15:30 at €84 avg). Discharge €216 in the late-evening scarcity block (21:00–22:30 at €216 avg). Captured spread €132.

The €199 is what a “normal” BESS day looks like when the wind shape delivers both ends — without the €5 charge that made June 7 unique. Captured spread €132 on a normal-charge day would have been the run’s previous record. The wind-shape lesson now has two demonstrations in three days.

38-day cumulative: €4,075. Crosses €4,000. Mean €107/day. Top 5: June 7 €304, June 9 €199, May 18 €168, May 24 €163, May 17 €161 — €995 from 5/38 = 13% of days = 24% of cumulative. The top 2 days alone are 12% of revenue on 5% of days.

Commentary #

Another late-evening scarcity event, two days after the last one. Wind held 50%+ for 18 hours then drained from 52% to 19% across the late evening. The merit order climbed into peakers and the day cleared €209–230 across the 21:00–22:30 block.

BESS €199. Charge €84 midday, discharge €216 late evening, captured spread €132. That’s a “normal-charge” version of the June 7 trade — without the €5 charge anomaly, but with a wider discharge window. Second-best day of the run at €199 gross.

The cumulative crosses €4,000. Mean per day now €107 — up from €99 just six days ago. Two days have done that work. The top 2 BESS days are 12% of total revenue on 5% of days — and the concentration is increasing, not stabilising, as the series grows.

The week-long arc: June 4 broke the trough record, June 7 set the BESS record (€304) by combining a deep trough with a scarcity peak, June 9 confirmed the pattern at €199. The same wind shape — high wind holding for 14-18 hours, then sharp drainage into a late demand peak — produced both top days. Whatever weather setup creates that pattern, it’s worth knowing the forecast for.

The week’s arc, in one line: Six days. Two of them did €503 of BESS gross between them — 12% of the entire 38-day series. Same wind shape both times: sustained 50%+ wind through the day, sharp drainage into the late evening, scarcity prints between €200 and €230. Forecast that pattern and you’ve got the year.