I-SEM Daily Briefing — 10 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €29.38/MWh · Median €140.14/MWh · Periods above €150: 17 of 48 (35%)

The shape today is double-humped. A morning ramp climbs from €140 (06:00) to €186.72 (07:30) as wind dips to 18%, then the floor drops out through midday — €115.95 at 15:00, the day’s cheapest period, as wind builds to 39.9%. From there it’s a steep climb into the evening, topping out at €222.21 by 22:00 as wind falls back under 20%. Two wind troughs, two price peaks.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 26.6% · Range: 17.9%–39.9%

A textbook inverse. Both price peaks — morning and evening — sit on top of wind troughs (17.9% and ~18-21%), and the only real wind surplus of the day (28-40%, midday through late afternoon) buys the day’s cheapest hour. Cannibalisation, right on schedule.

Week in Context #

Moderate wind, moderate everything — this sits in the middle of the week’s range. The flatter, higher-wind days and the sharper, lower-wind spikes are still to come.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 17 (35% of day) · Above €200: 5 (10% of day)

A third of the day clears above €150, but only 5 periods break €200 — shape without real scarcity. The curve has a proper slope, not the flat plateau of a thermally-set day.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €151.89/MWh · Off-peak avg: €146.74/MWh · Spread: €5.15/MWh

The headline range is €106, but the peak/off-peak spread is almost nothing. Both the morning ramp and the evening ceiling fall inside the ‘peak’ window — and so does the midday floor. The extremes cancel each other out within the same window, leaving off-peak flat and unremarkable.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€127 gross on a captured spread of €95 — charge at €116 (14:00), discharge at €212 (20:30). Solid, unspectacular. The battery caught the midday wind trough and rode the evening ramp out, exactly as the day’s shape would predict.

Commentary #

Two wind troughs, two price peaks, one trough of surplus in between — today’s shape was written entirely by wind. The morning dip to 18% lifted the ramp to €186.72, the midday surplus (up to 39.9%) bought the day’s floor at €115.95, and the evening fade back under 20% lifted the ceiling to €222.21, the day’s peak.

A €106 range sounds volatile, but the peak/off-peak split barely moved (€5.15) — both ends of the swing landed inside the same window and cancelled out. For storage, though, the shape was real: €127 gross, a fair midweek result.

Wind crept toward 40% in the afternoon trough today. If it holds or builds further into tomorrow, expect the double hump to flatten out.