I-SEM Daily Briefing — 11 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €13.28/MWh · Median €128.09/MWh · Periods above €150: 2 of 48 (4%)

Wind builds overnight to 71.1% by 04:30, and the price profile goes flat in response: €104-140 for almost the entire day, a std dev of just €13.28 — the tightest of the week. The only outlier is the very first period, €171.50 at 23:00, a hangover from the prior evening’s higher wind-trough pricing. Strip that out and this is as flat as it gets.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 53.8% · Range: 37.8%–71.1%

Wind sits above 50% for nearly the whole day, peaking near 70% overnight. Cannibalisation is total — with this much wind in the merit order, gas barely gets a look in, and the floor sits around €105. This is what a well-supplied grid looks like: flat and low.

Week in Context #

After yesterday’s double-humped shape, wind built overnight and flattened everything out. Today’s std dev of €13.28 is the tightest of the week — the calm before two days of much sharper moves.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 2 (4% of day) · Above €200: 0 (0% of day)

Only 2 of 48 periods clear €150, none clear €200. The curve is flat and low across its entire length — the signature of a well-supplied, gas-light day.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €128.5/MWh · Off-peak avg: €128.23/MWh · Spread: €0.27/MWh

As close to zero as this market gets. Peak and off-peak average almost the same price, because there’s no shape to the day for the windows to separate.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€40 gross, the worst of the week. With std dev this low there’s no volatility for a battery to exploit — the captured spread of €42 is barely above the charge price itself.

Commentary #

Wind built through the night to 71.1% and the day went flat: €13.28 std dev, the lowest of the week by a wide margin, and only 2 periods above €150.

Storage doesn’t reward flat days — €40 gross was the worst result of the week, because there was simply no spread to capture.

Wind above 50% for a second straight day tomorrow would mean more of the same. But if that surplus shifts toward midday instead of overnight, this flat shape could break into something much sharper.