I-SEM Daily Briefing — 14 June 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €47.65/MWh · Median €185.63/MWh · Periods above €150: 38 of 48 (79%)

Yesterday’s evening wind collapse carries straight through into tonight’s small hours. Wind bottoms at 8.2% at 00:00, and the price responds immediately — climbing from €191.40 to a peak of €306.57 at 03:00, the highest price of the week by a wide margin. Prices stay elevated (€215-280) through the overnight and into the morning, only easing once wind recovers past 20% after lunch, bottoming at €115.09 (14:30) before settling into a steady €178-182 through the evening.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 21.7% · Range: 8.2%–40.7%

Wind sits below 15% for the first nine periods of the day (00:00-04:00) — exactly when the price peaks. This is the same collapse seen at the end of yesterday, simply continuing into the small hours. Once wind recovers above 20% after lunch, prices ease to the day’s only relief, €115.09, before climbing back as evening demand returns.

Week in Context #

Highest mean (€190.43), highest peak (€306.57), and the widest range (€191.48) of the week — all driven by the same low-wind stretch that began yesterday evening. Two consecutive low-wind days have bookended the week with its two most expensive spikes.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 38 (79% of day) · Above €200: 17 (35% of day)

38 of 48 periods clear €150 and 17 clear €200 — by far the most scarcity-heavy curve of the week. This is a flat-and-high day with a long expensive plateau, not a single spike.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €168.01/MWh · Off-peak avg: €227.81/MWh · Spread: €-59.8/MWh

A sharply negative spread: -€59.8. Off-peak (€227.81) is the most expensive window of the entire week, while peak (€168.01) — still high in its own right — looks cheap by comparison. The overnight scarcity hours fall entirely inside the off-peak window, inverting the usual relationship.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

€238 gross, ROI 102.4% — second-best of the week. Charging at €116 in the afternoon lull and discharging at €276 into the 02:00 overnight scarcity spike captures most of the day’s €191 range.

Commentary #

An 8.2% wind floor at midnight set off the highest price of the week — €306.57 at 03:00 — and kept the overnight hours expensive for the rest of the night. The only relief came after lunch, once wind climbed back past 20% and the price eased to €115.09.

Storage didn’t miss it: €238 gross, second-best of the week, just behind yesterday’s record. Two low-wind evenings in a row have now produced the week’s two biggest spikes and its two best BESS days.

The pattern this week has been consistent — when wind falls away, the ceiling lifts and storage gets paid. Worth watching whether wind recovers into next week, or whether this becomes the new normal.