I-SEM Daily Briefing — 3 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €32.01/MWh · Median €137.62/MWh · Periods above €150: 11 of 48 (23%)

Wind never got out of second gear today — 44% was the ceiling, and it spent the small hours down at 8%. That pre-dawn low held price above €130 all night, then wind bottoming out again for the morning ramp bought the day’s €224 peak at 07:30. Afternoon wind climbing back to 40%+ only pulled price down to a shallow €96 trough — nothing like Thursday’s €55 floor.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 25.4% · Range: 8.1%–43.9%

A muted version of the usual relationship. With wind capped at 44% there was never enough supply on the table to crush price the way Wednesday’s or Thursday’s wind highs did — the trough this time is a dip, not a floor.

Week in Context #

Third day, third shape. Wednesday whipsawed, Thursday bled steadily, Friday just ran short of wind all day. Std dev (€32.01) sits between the two — less violent than Thursday, still more than double Monday-style calm.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 11 (23% of day) · Above €200: 5 (10% of day)

A morning-loaded ceiling — most of the €200+ periods cluster around the 07:30 spike rather than spreading through the evening.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €138.64/MWh · Off-peak avg: €144.7/MWh · Spread: €-6.06/MWh

Negative again, same mechanism as Wednesday: a low-wind pre-dawn stretch drags the off-peak average above the daytime one, even with a €224 spike sitting inside the peak window.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charged into the shallow afternoon trough (€98, 14:00), discharged into the morning spike (€212, 07:00). Gross €166, ROI 85% — a solid trade, but the smallest spread of the week so far because wind never gave the market a real floor to charge into.

Commentary #

Friday was the low-wind day of the week — 44% was as high as it got, and it spent hours down at 8-9%. That persistent scarcity is what built the sharp €224 morning spike and kept the whole overnight period elevated above €130. There just wasn’t enough supply on the table to force a real floor anywhere.

It’s a useful contrast with Thursday. Same general shape — low wind overnight, some relief in the afternoon — but Thursday’s wind actually got up into the 60s and manufactured a €55 trough; Friday’s afternoon wind only reached the low 40s, so the trough stayed shallow at €96. Same story, half the amplitude.

Three very different Julys-so-far in three days. With the weekend coming, demand is about to become the bigger swing factor than wind.