I-SEM Daily Briefing — 5 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €22.71/MWh · Median €129.9/MWh · Periods above €150: 5 of 48 (10%)

Quietest day of the week by a distance. Wind stayed in a narrow 20-36% band, never spiking, never collapsing, and price followed suit — a gentle overnight drift down, a modest €82 trough mid-afternoon, a mild evening ramp to a muted €169 peak. No scarcity, no glut, just Sunday.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 26.2% · Range: 20.1%–36.0%

Narrow wind range, narrow price range. There’s no dramatic cause-effect swing to point at here — wind wasn’t doing much, and with Sunday demand soft too, nothing pushed price to either extreme.

Week in Context #

The calmest close to five wild days. Lowest std dev, lowest peak, narrowest range of the week — a soft landing after Saturday’s swing from €9 to €201. Same weekend demand pattern, but without Saturday’s flat-wind extreme to amplify it.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 5 (10% of day) · Above €200: 0 (0% of day)

Flattest ceiling of the week — not a single period above €200. The whole day sat in a tight, unremarkable band.

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €119.2/MWh · Off-peak avg: €134.45/MWh · Spread: €-15.25/MWh

Off-peak still runs above peak, same low-wind-pre-dawn pattern seen most of this week, just smaller in magnitude than any other day.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charged at €85 (14:00), discharged at €159 (21:00). Gross €100, ROI 59% — smallest trade of the week. Thin spread, quiet market, nothing to arbitrage against.

Commentary #

Sunday closed out one of the more varied weeks the DAM has served up in a while — Wednesday’s overnight wind whipsaw, Thursday’s slow bleed to a late peak, Friday’s persistent low-wind squeeze, Saturday’s near-zero midday collapse under flat wind and dead demand. Sunday had none of that. Wind stayed in a tight band, demand stayed soft, and price never left a comfortable middle ground.

It’s a reminder that the wildest days this week weren’t really about wind extremes on their own — they needed wind and demand to misalign in a specific way. Sunday, both stayed calm together, so nothing amplified.

A quiet finish before the working week resumes and demand comes back with it.