I-SEM Daily Briefing — 6 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €27.56/MWh · Median €132.27/MWh · Periods above €150: 17 of 48 (35%)

Wind held a moderate 23–39% band all day — never crashing, never flooding — and price built one steady ramp instead of a spike. Overnight wind near 39% kept price down around €113–120. It climbed through the 06:00 morning ramp, dipped again through midday as wind ticked back up, then ran unbroken through the evening to a €195 peak at 21:30. No scarcity shock, just a grind upward.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 28.8% · Range: 22.8%–39.1%

A narrow wind range makes for a clean wind-to-price relationship — the cleanest of the week so far. Wind falling through the evening (28%→23%) tracks almost period-for-period with price climbing from €123 to €195.

Week in Context #

A calmer open than most of last week’s swings. After Sunday’s tight, unremarkable band, Monday brings back a real evening ramp — but a controlled one, capped well short of €200, not a Wednesday-style whipsaw.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 17 (35% of day) · Above €200: 0 (0% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €145.89/MWh · Off-peak avg: €128.22/MWh · Spread: €17.67/MWh

Normal shape restored — peak beats off-peak, first positive spread in a while. Evening demand plus the gradual evening wind fade did the work; no overnight low-wind stretch or afternoon glut around to flip it this time.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Charged at €111 (14:00) while wind was still rising, discharged into the €195 evening ceiling. ROI 49% — solid but unspectacular. The gradual ramp gave the battery time to see the peak coming rather than chase a scarcity shock.

Commentary #

Monday opens the week the way markets are supposed to work: wind fades gently through the evening, demand builds toward its usual peak, and price follows in one clean line to €195. No inversions, no whipsaws, nothing that needed a second chart to explain.

It’s a contrast with last week’s volatility, but also a reminder of what “normal” looks like here — wind moderate but declining, a positive peak/off-peak spread, and a ceiling that never gets near €200. Worth watching whether this is a one-off calm Monday or the start of a genuine lull in wind.

If wind keeps easing through the week the way it started today, expect the ramps to get steeper and the peaks to climb — Monday’s €195 may be a floor, not a ceiling, for what’s coming.