I-SEM Daily Briefing — 9 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €42.83/MWh · Median €201.69/MWh · Periods above €150: 48 of 48 (100%)

Thursday deepens the drought rather than breaking it — wind fell even further from Wednesday’s already-thin 5.2% to 4.5%, and price responds with a double hump: a sharp morning ramp to €270 by 08:30, a brief midday floor near €152–165, then a second evening climb to a fresh week-high €275.94 at 23:00. Every single period closed above €150.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 4.5% · Range: 1.3%–12.2%

Wind spent the whole day pinned under 12%, mostly in single digits. With that little to lean on, price just tracks demand — two peaks, morning and evening, both pushed hard against the ceiling.

Week in Context #

Four days in and the wind drought keeps getting worse, not better: 29% Monday, 16% Tuesday, 5.2% Wednesday, now 4.5% Thursday. Price has climbed in lockstep — Thursday’s €213 mean and €276 peak are both new highs for the week.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 48 (100% of day) · Above €200: 26 (54% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €213.56/MWh · Off-peak avg: €212.79/MWh · Spread: €0.77/MWh

Spread is essentially flat at €0.77 — not because things eased, but because there was nowhere to hide. Both windows sat equally high; the drought didn’t spare day or night.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Grabbed the one soft patch of the day, €156 at 13:00 during the midday lull, and discharged into the evening ramp at €268. ROI 46.7%, the best trade so far this week — even a compressed, elevated day still throws up a workable spread if you catch the right 30 minutes.

Commentary #

Thursday is the low point of the wind drought that’s been building since Monday. 29% → 16% → 5.2% → 4.5% — four straight days of less and less wind, and price has climbed to match every step: €195, €233, €239, now €276.

Unlike Wednesday’s single flat scarcity plateau, Thursday has actual shape — a morning ramp, a midday lull, an evening ramp — but the lull barely counts as relief, bottoming at €151.86 while Wednesday managed €131.63. There’s simply no wind left to bring price down anywhere.

Friday is the question now: does the drought finally break, or does the market grind even tighter into the weekend?