I-SEM Daily Briefing — 12 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €47.97/MWh · Median €147.89/MWh · Periods above €150: 23 of 48 (48%)

Sunday is the most volatile day of the week — std dev jumps to €47.97, the widest range of any day (€162.01), and unusually the peak doesn’t land in the evening at all: €208.32 hits at 03:00. Price then craters through the afternoon to a week-low €46.31 at 15:00 before a modest evening recovery.

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 30.9% · Range: 19.8%–50.9%

Wind is highest of the week at 30.9% on average, but it isn’t a clean story — the overnight peak actually coincides with a brief dip in wind around 02:00–03:00, while the deepest midday trough happens on ordinary wind, not exceptional wind. Weekend demand, at the week’s lowest (3348 MW), looks like the bigger driver of the afternoon collapse.

Week in Context #

Sunday closes out the week with its highest wind (30.9%) and lowest mean price (€130.70) — the mirror image of Thursday’s drought low. Seven days, one full cycle: wind down from 29% to 4.5% and back up past 30%, price up from €182 to €276 and back down to €131.

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 23 (48% of day) · Above €200: 1 (2% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €105.17/MWh · Off-peak avg: €173.25/MWh · Spread: €-68.08/MWh

Spread inverts hardest here, €-68.08 — by far the week’s biggest — because the nominal “peak” window catches Sunday’s deep midday demand trough while the overnight hours catch the early scarcity spike. Labels like peak and off-peak stop meaning much on a low-demand, high-wind Sunday.

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

The week’s best trade by a wide margin: charged at €46.31, the week-low, and discharged into the €208 overnight spike. Gross profit €235, ROI 234.5% — nearly six times Saturday’s return, proof that the widest spread of the week showed up on the day with the most wind, not the least.

Commentary #

Sunday closes the loop. The week ran from Monday’s calm 29% wind through a four-day drought bottoming at 4.5% on Thursday, then back up to Sunday’s 30.9% — the highest of the seven days. Price traced the same arc in reverse: €195 peak Monday, up to €276 Thursday, back down to a €131 mean Sunday.

But Sunday isn’t just “more wind, lower price” — it’s the most chaotic day of the week, with the widest range and an overnight price spike that outranks anything the daytime saw. Low weekend demand exaggerates every move: the midday trough goes deeper, and the best battery trade of the week, a 234% ROI, comes from exactly that extra volatility.

A full week, a full cycle: drought to glut, scarcity to negative spreads. Monday brings weekday demand back — the real test of whether this wind recovery holds under load.