I-SEM Daily Briefing — 25 July 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €48.21/MWh · Median €127.7/MWh · Periods above €150: 18 of 48 (38%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 37.5% · Range: 25.8%–60.6%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 18 (38% of day) · Above €200: 1 (2% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €111.82/MWh · Off-peak avg: €152.01/MWh · Spread: €-40.19/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

Wind stepped up again — 37.5% average, peaking at 60.6% overnight — and the price curve caved in the middle of the day. From 07:00 through 09:30, wind held in the 26–44% band and price fell through the floor, bottoming at €20.86 at 09:00. Three consecutive hours under €40/MWh in the middle of a weekday morning is not something low-wind days ever produce.

Peak/off-peak spread flipped further negative than Friday, to -€40.19, confirming the pattern: the more wind in the system, the more the cheap hours migrate into daylight and the more the “peak” label on 07:00–22:00 stops meaning anything. The evening still carried a premium — wind eased back into the 30s by 20:00 and price climbed back to €201.24 at 23:00 — but the story of the day was that midday trough.

Storage loved it. €258 gross profit and a 395% ROI, the best day so far this week, on a €158/MWh spread between an €33/MWh charge and a €190/MWh discharge. This is what the theory predicts: give the battery a proper trough to buy into and a real evening peak to sell into, and the returns follow.