I-SEM Daily Briefing — 17 August 2026

Price Profile #

Std dev €24.16/MWh · Median €189.95/MWh · Periods above €150: 48 of 48 (100%)

Price vs Wind #

Mean wind: 23.7% · Range: 8.2%–48.0%

Week in Context #

Price Duration Curve #

Periods above €150: 48 (100% of day) · Above €200: 20 (42% of day)

Peak / Off-Peak Spread #

Peak avg (07:00–22:00): €200.55/MWh · Off-peak avg: €178.27/MWh · Spread: €22.28/MWh

BESS Dispatch Signal #

Simulated 1MW/2MWh battery, one optimal DAM cycle. Gross before network charges and capacity costs.

Commentary #

Monday broke the shape as well as the pattern. Overnight wind was strong — 46–48% through the small hours — but it collapsed to single digits by 06:00–09:30, right as morning demand ramped up, and the price spiked into a €248.00 peak at 09:30. That’s a morning squeeze, not the usual evening one, and it’s why every single period cleared above €150 today (100%, the first time this week) and 42% cleared above €200. Wind recovered steadily through the afternoon and evening — back to 40%+ by 18:00 — which capped what would otherwise have been a second, evening peak: prices eased to a €162.12 trough at 15:30 and only climbed back to €215-ish by 19:00, well under the morning’s €248.

Storage charged into the afternoon trough at 14:30 (€163 avg) and discharged into the evening peak at 18:00 (€214 avg). €38 gross, 11.8% ROI — a modest return, because the morning squeeze at 09:30 (€248 peak) was the day’s real scarcity event, but it came before the afternoon trough, so a same-day cycle couldn’t reach it: the battery can only discharge into a window after it has charged, and by the time the afternoon trough opened up, the morning’s sharper peak was already behind it.

For the week-level picture and what it means if you're buying, see Weekly Analysis — 10–16 August 2026.